Analysis of a Succession Propension Index (PSI) of rural properties using fuzzy systems

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.21527/2237-6453.2025.62.15877

Keywords:

Parenting Styles, Fuzzy, Rural Properties, Succession

Abstract

The aim of this study was to propose a conceptual model to represent the propensity of rural properties to succeed, based on the the subjective aspects inherent in the succession process, using fuzzy systems. In order to design the analysis, a bibliographical survey was carried out, which listed the factors influencing succession, which were grouped into five dimensions: Parental Profile; Parenting Styles; Farm Profile; Successor Profile; and Family Relations. and Family Relationships. The output variables of the inference systems that represent the five aforementioned dimensions make up the main level inference system, which estimates the Succession Propensity Index (SPI). In order to test the conceptual model for representing the SPI, a study was carried out with 87 potential successors in the state of Rio Grande do Sul- Brazil. The operationalization of the fuzzy inference system revealed an average IPS of the sample (5.49). In addition, the lowest average IPS was obtained for the property profile (3.30), i.e. the dimension with the lowest propensity to succession (low). (low). This dimension combines the factors income, property size, distance and diversification. On the other hand, the IPS parental styles showed the highest average IPS (7.43), which is considered a high IPS.

References

ABDALA, R. G.; BINOTTO, E.; BORGES, J. A. R. Sucessão familiar rural: evidências da capacidade absortiva, capital social e aspectos socioeconômicos. Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural, v. 60, n. 4, 2022. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1590/1806-9479.2021.235777

ALDANONDO OCHOA, A. M.; CASANOVAS OLIVA, V.; ALMANSA SÁEZ, C. Explaining farm succession: the impact of farm location and off-farm employment opportunities. Spanish Journal of Agricultural Research, v. 5, n. 2, p. 214-225, 2007. DOI: 10.5424/sjar/2007052-241

BARBOSA, R. A. et al. Using Q-methodology to identify rural women’s viewpoint on succession of family farms. Land Use Policy, v. 92, 2020. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2020.104489

BAUMRIND, D. Effects of authoritative parental control on child behavior. UChild Development, 37U, 887-907. 1966.

BEDNAŘÍKOVÁ, Z.; BAVOROVÁ, M.; PONKINA, E. V. Migration motivation of agriculturally educated rural youth: The case of Russian Siberia. Journal of Rural Studies, v. 45, p. 99-111, 2016. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2016.03.006

BEECHER, M. et al. Careers in dairy: adolescents’ perceptions and attitudes. The Journal of Agricultural Education and Extension, v. 25, p. 415-430, 2019. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/1389224X.2019.1643745

BENINI, L. C. Uma introdução à teoria dos conjuntos fuzzy. Natal: Editora UFRN, 2012.

BERTONI, D.; CAVICCHIOLI, D. Process description, qualitative analysis and causal relationships in farm succession. CAB Reviews − Perspectives in Agriculture Veterinary Science Nutrition and Natural Resources, p. 1-11, 2016.

BERTOLOZZI-CAREDIO. D. et al. Key steps and dynamics of family farm succession in marginal extensive livestock farming. Journal of Rural Studies. v. 76, p. 131-141, 2020. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2020.04.030

BIERNACKI, P.; WALDORF, D. Snowball sampling: Problems and techniques of chain referral sampling. Sociological Methods & Research, v. 10, n. 2, p. 141-163, 1981.

BOSCARDIN, M. Sucessão geracional no meio rural: percepção dos filhos em relação aos estilos parentais. 2024. Tese (Doutorado) – Universidade Federal de Santa Maria. Disponível em: https://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/31762. Acesso em: 1º maio 2025.

BREITENBACH, R.; CORAZZA, G.; DEBASTIANI, L. Sucessão familiar na agricultura: cenário internacional. Interdisciplina, v. 9, n. 25 p. 115-138, 2021. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22201/ceiich.24485705e.2021.25.79969

BREITENBACH, R.; DALLAGNOL, R. P.; TROIAN, A. “Decidi ficar”: aspectos emocionais como fatores determinantes do processo sucessório em Ipiranga do Sul/RS. Revista Brasileira de Gestão e Desenvolvimento Regional, v. 19, n. 1, 2023. DOI: https://doi.org/10.54399/rbgdr.v19i1.6696

CAROLAN, M. Lands changing hands: experiences of succession and farm (knowledge) acquisition among first-generation, multigenerational, and aspiring farmers. Land Use Policy. v. 79, p. 179-189, 2018. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j. landusepol.2018.08.011

CAVICCHIOLI, D.; BERTONI, D.; PRETOLANI, R. Farm succession at a crossroads: the interaction among farm characteristics, labour market conditions, and gender and birth order effects. Journal of Rural Studies, v. 61, p. 73-83, 2018. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2018.06.002

CAVICCHIOLI, D et al. What factors encourage intrafamily farm succession in mountain areas? Mountain Research and Development, v. 35, p. 152-160, 2015. DOI: 10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-14-00107.1

CHISWELL, H. M. From generation to generation: changing dimensions of intergenerational farm transfer. Sociologia Ruralis, v. 58, p. 104-125, 2018. DOI: https://doi.org/ 10.1111/soru.12138

CHISWELL, H. M.; LOBLEY, M. “It's definitely a good time to be a farmer”: Understanding the changing dynamics of successor creation in late modern society. Rural Sociology, v. 83, n. 3, p. 630-653, 2018. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/ruso.12205

CONWAY, S. F. et al. Uncovering obstacles: the exercise of symbolic power in the complex arena of intergenerational family farm transfer. Journal of Rural Studies, v. 54, p. 60-75, 2017. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2017.06.007

COOPMANS, I. et al. Understanding farm generational renewal and its influencing factors in Europe. Journal of Rural Studies, v. 86, p. 398-409, 2021. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2021.06.023

COSTA, F. T. da; TEIXEIRA, M. A. P.; GOMES, W. B. Responsividade e exigências: duas escalas para avaliar estilos parentais. Psicologia: reflexão e crítica, v. 13, p. 465-473, 2000. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1590/S0102-79722000000300014

CUSH, P.; MACKEN-WALSH, A. Farming “through the ages”: joint farming ventures in Ireland. Rural Society, v. 25, p. 104-116, 2016. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/10371656.2016.1225833

DARLING, N.; STEINBERG, L. Parenting style as context: an integrative model. Psychological Bulletin, v. 113, p. 487-496, 1993.

DEMING, J. et al. Entering the occupational category of “Farmer”: new pathways through professional agricultural education in Ireland. The Journal of Agricultural Education and Extension, v. 25, p. 63-78, 2018. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/ 1389224X.2018.1529605

DOS SANTOS, Priscila Soares; DE OLIVEIRA, Sibele Vasconcelos; DIAS, Lázaro Cézar. Análise de um índice Fuzzy de aceitação potencial da política de ações afirmativas do Brasil (2017). Revista Econômica do Nordeste, v. 52, n. 4, p. 104-120, 2021.

FISHER, H.; BURTON, R. J. Understanding farm succession as socially constructed endogenous cycles. Sociologia Ruralis, v. 54, n. 4, p. 417-438, 2014. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/soru.12055

FOGUESATTO, C. R. et al. Will I have a potential successor? Factors influencing family farming succession in Brazil. Land Use Policy. v. 97, 104643, 2020. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2020.104643

GLAUBEN, T. et al. Probability and timing of succession or closure in family firms: a switching regression analysis of farm households in Germany. Applied Economics, v. 41, p. 45-54, 2009. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840601131722

LAGO, A. et al. Analyzing decision-making factors in the generational succession of rural youth. Journal of Co-operative Organization and Management, v. 10, n. 2, p. 100187, 2022. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcom.2022.100187

LEONARD, B. et al. Risky (farm) business: perceptions of economic risk in farm succession and inheritance. Journal of Rural Studies. v. 75, p. 57-69, 2020. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2019.12.007

LOBLEY, M.; BAKER, J. R.; WHITEHEAD, I. Farm succession and retirement: some international comparisons. Journal of Agriculture, Food Systems and Community Development, v. 1, n. 1, p. 49-64, 2010. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5304/jafscd.2010.011.009

MALIBARI, A. et al. Analysis of Attitudes towards Food Waste in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Using Fuzzy Logic. Sustainability, v. 15, n. 4, p. 3.668, 2023.

MATTE, A. et al. Agricultura e pecuária familiar: (Des) continuidade na reprodução social e na gestão dos negócios. Revista Brasileira de Gestão e Desenvolvimento Regional, v. 15, n. 1, 2019. DOI: https://doi.org/10.54399/rbgdr.v15i1.4317

MILONE, P.; VENTURA, F. New generation farmers: rediscovering the peasantry. Journal of Rural Studies, v. 65, p. 43-52, 2019. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2018.12.009

MISHRA, A. K.; EL- OSTA, H. S. Effect of agricultural policy on succession decisions of farm households. Review of Economics of the Household, v. 6, p. 285-307, 2008. DOI: 10.1007/s11150-008-9032-7

MORAIS, M. Sucessão e teoria do comportamento planejado: o estado da arte e a intenção de potenciais sucessores em se tornarem produtores rurais. 2017. Disponível em: https://repositorio.ufgd.edu.br/jspui/bitstream/prefix/1191/1/ManoelaMorais.pdf. Acesso em: 10 jun. 2022.

MORAIS, M.; BINOTTO, E.; BORGES, J. A. R. Identifying beliefs underlying successors’ intention to take over the farm. Land Use Policy, v. 68, p. 48-58, 2017. DOI: doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2017.07.024

NUTHALL, P. L.; OLD, K. M. Farm owners’ reluctance to embrace family succession and the implications for extension: the case of family farms in New Zealand. The Journal of Agricultural Education and Extension, v. 23, p. 39-60, 2016. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/1389224X.2016.1200992

OLIVEIRA, M. F.; MENDES, L.; VAN HERK VASCONCELOS, A. C. Desafios à permanência do jovem no meio rural: um estudo de casos em Piracicaba-SP e Uberlândia-MG. Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural, v. 59, n. 2, p. 1-19, 2021. DOI: e222727. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1590/1806-9479.2021.222727

OSAWA, T.; KOHYAMA, K.; MITSUHASHI, H. Multiple factors drive regional agricultural abandonment. Science of The Total Environment, v. 542, p. 478-483, 2016. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.10.067

PESSOTTO, A. P. et al. Factors influencing intergenerational succession in family farm businesses in Brazil. Land Use Policy, v. 87, n. 104045, 2019. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2019.104045

POLLNOW, G. E.; CALDAS, N. V.; ANJOS, F. S. Sucessão geracional e instalação de jovens na agricultura: a percepção de organizações sindicais da Espanha. Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural, v. 61, n. 4, e26321, p. 1-21, 2023. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1590/1806-9479.2022.263213

PITTS, M. J. et al. Dialectical tensions underpinning family farm succession planning. Journal of Applied Communication Research, v. 37, p. 59-79, 2009. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00909880802592631

RODRIGUEZ-LIZANO, V.; MONTERO-VEJA, M.; SIBELET, N. Which variables influence the succession process in family farms? A literature review. Cahiers Agriculture, v. 29, p. 39, 2020. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1051/cagri/2020040

SHAHZAD, M. A.; ABUBAKR, S.; FISCHER, C. Factors Affecting Farm Succession and Occupational Choices of Nominated Farm Successors in Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan. Agriculture. v. 11, n. 1203, 2021. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture11121203

SILVA, M. N. et al. A quem pertence o futuro? Agricultura familiar e sucessão geracional no Brasil meridional. Revista Brasileira de Gestão e Desenvolvimento Regional, [S. l.], v. 19, n. 2, 2023. DOI: 10.54399/rbgdr.v19i2.6513

SILVA, M. N. da; ANJOS, F. S. dos. A sucessão geracional na pecuária familiar do extremo sul do Brasil. Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural, v. 61, n. 2, p. e253400, 2022. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1590/1806-9479.2021.253400

SOTTOMAYOR M.; TRANTER, R.; COSTA, L. Likelihood of succession and farmers’ attitudes towards their future behaviour: evidence from a survey in Germany, the United Kingdom and Portugal. International Journal of Sociology of Agriculture and Food, v. 18, n. 2, p. 121-133, 2011. DOI: https://doi.org/10.48416/ijsaf.v18i2.250

TEIXEIRA, M. A. P.; BARDAGI, M. P.; GOMES, W. B. Refinamento de um instrumento para avaliar responsividade e exigência parental percebidas na adolescência. Avaliação Psicológica: Interamerican Journal of Psychological Assessment, v. 3, n. 1, p. 1-12, 2004.

WHEELER, S., et al. Handing down the farm? The increasing uncertainty of irrigated farm succession in Australia. Journal of Rural Studies, v. 28, n. 3, p. 266-275, 2012. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2012.04.001

ZAGATA, L.; SUTHERLAND, L. A. Deconstructing the “young farmer problem in Europe”: towards a research agenda. Journal of Rural Studies, v. 38, p. 39-51, 2015. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2015.01.003

Published

2025-06-27

How to Cite

Boscardin, M., de Oliveira, S. V., & Dorr, A. C. (2025). Analysis of a Succession Propension Index (PSI) of rural properties using fuzzy systems. Desenvolvimento Em Questão, 23(62), e15877. https://doi.org/10.21527/2237-6453.2025.62.15877

Issue

Section

Artigos